Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 18,897
2 New Jersey 17,461
3 Massachusetts 13,532
4 Rhode Island 13,276
5 District of Columbia 11,654
6 Connecticut 11,464
7 Delaware 9,206
8 Illinois 8,858
9 Louisiana 8,156
10 Maryland 7,898
11 Nebraska 6,386
12 Pennsylvania 5,651
13 Iowa 5,587
14 Michigan 5,488
15 South Dakota 5,183
16 Indiana 4,825
17 Mississippi 4,521
18 Virginia 4,420
19 Colorado 4,212
20 Georgia 3,900
21 Minnesota 3,781
22 New Mexico 3,350
23 North Dakota 3,224
24 Kansas 3,182
25 New Hampshire 3,086
26 Alabama 3,056
27 Tennessee 3,006
28 Ohio 2,778
29 Washington 2,758
30 Wisconsin 2,687
31 Utah 2,657
32 Nevada 2,583
33 California 2,455
34 Florida 2,408
35 North Carolina 2,288
36 Arizona 2,275
37 Missouri 2,003
38 Arkansas 1,997
39 Kentucky 1,991
40 South Carolina 1,976
41 Texas 1,948
42 Maine 1,542
43 Vermont 1,541
44 Oklahoma 1,539
45 Idaho 1,490
46 Wyoming 1,456
47 Puerto Rico 1,020
48 West Virginia 994
49 Oregon 936
50 Alaska 563
51 Montana 448
52 Hawaii 447

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Maryland 177
2 Illinois 171
3 District of Columbia 156
4 Delaware 149
5 Minnesota 136
6 Nebraska 119
7 Iowa 118
8 Connecticut 115
9 Massachusetts 115
10 Virginia 108
11 Rhode Island 103
12 Mississippi 93
13 Alabama 89
14 New Jersey 89
15 South Dakota 86
16 New York 79
17 North Carolina 74
18 Indiana 65
19 New Mexico 63
20 Louisiana 62
21 Wisconsin 62
22 North Dakota 61
23 Tennessee 57
24 Pennsylvania 53
25 California 52
26 Georgia 52
27 Utah 48
28 Ohio 47
29 Arkansas 46
30 Colorado 46
31 Nevada 46
32 New Hampshire 44
33 Arizona 43
34 Florida 35
35 South Carolina 34
36 Maine 31
37 Michigan 31
38 Washington 31
39 Missouri 27
40 Puerto Rico 24
41 Texas 24
42 Kansas 23
43 Wyoming 23
44 Oklahoma 20
45 Kentucky 15
46 West Virginia 14
47 Idaho 12
48 Oregon 6
49 Vermont 5
50 Alaska 3
51 Hawaii 0
52 Montana 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,497
2 New Jersey 1,254
3 Connecticut 1,049
4 Massachusetts 930
5 District of Columbia 623
6 Louisiana 578
7 Rhode Island 573
8 Michigan 524
9 Pennsylvania 402
10 Illinois 387
11 Maryland 380
12 Delaware 340
13 Indiana 294
14 Colorado 231
15 Mississippi 213
16 Georgia 171
17 Ohio 169
18 Minnesota 157
19 New Hampshire 154
20 New Mexico 152
21 Iowa 145
22 Virginia 141
23 Washington 141
24 Nevada 128
25 Alabama 115
26 Missouri 113
27 Arizona 110
28 Florida 104
29 California 96
30 Kentucky 90
31 Wisconsin 88
32 Vermont 86
33 South Carolina 85
34 Nebraska 80
35 Oklahoma 79
36 North Carolina 74
37 North Dakota 70
38 Kansas 68
39 Maine 58
40 South Dakota 56
41 Texas 52
42 Tennessee 48
43 Idaho 44
44 Puerto Rico 40
45 West Virginia 40
46 Arkansas 38
47 Oregon 35
48 Utah 30
49 Wyoming 20
50 Montana 14
51 Hawaii 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 District of Columbia 10
2 Connecticut 9
3 Massachusetts 9
4 Rhode Island 9
5 Maryland 5
6 New Jersey 5
7 New York 5
8 Illinois 4
9 Mississippi 4
10 Delaware 3
11 Ohio 3
12 Pennsylvania 3
13 Indiana 2
14 Iowa 2
15 Michigan 2
16 Minnesota 2
17 New Mexico 2
18 Virginia 2
19 Alabama 1
20 Arizona 1
21 Georgia 1
22 Louisiana 1
23 Nebraska 1
24 New Hampshire 1
25 South Carolina 1
26 Wisconsin 1
27 Alaska 0
28 Arkansas 0
29 California 0
30 Colorado 0
31 Florida 0
32 Hawaii 0
33 Idaho 0
34 Kansas 0
35 Kentucky 0
36 Maine 0
37 Missouri 0
38 Montana 0
39 Nevada 0
40 North Carolina 0
41 North Dakota 0
42 Oklahoma 0
43 Oregon 0
44 Puerto Rico 0
45 South Dakota 0
46 Tennessee 0
47 Texas 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 123,361 1 99
Dakota Nebraska 80,995 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 74,862 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 67,918 4 99
Lake Tennessee 58,438 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 6,945 264 91
Richland South Carolina 3,286 673 78
Pierce Washington 2,077 993 68
Orange California 1,722 1159 63
York South Carolina 1,231 1466 53

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Terrell Georgia 3,048 1 99
Early Georgia 2,846 2 99
Randolph Georgia 2,803 3 99
Hancock Georgia 2,601 4 99
Essex New Jersey 1,996 5 99
Richland South Carolina 152 566 81
Davidson Tennessee 84 820 73
Pierce Washington 82 832 73
Orange California 41 1203 61
York South Carolina 21 1468 53

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons